Blackjack Probabilities

In order to master the game of blackjack, you will have to become familiar with how the house manages to retain its advantage. Mastering the odds against you and minimizing the house's edge is vital in a game of black jack. Your odds of beating the dealer are considerably higher when you play a game of blackjack online than when you're applying in a land based casino. Being able to mentally master the numbers and statistics that are necessary for you to beat the dealer will increase your chances of winning.

The reason why a dealer or the house has the edge is because the dealer always plays last. By the time the dealer gets to play his hand, it's highly possible that all the players have busted. This is why the casino's advantage is as high as 7 to 8 percent. By being aware of the probability of your hand busting, you can reduce this advantage to as low as 0.5 percent. The following statistics show you the probability of busting depending on the value of your hand.

For a hand of 21, clearly you have a 100 percent chance of busting if you choose to hit. For 20 - 92 %, for 19 - 85 %, for 18 - 77 %, for 17 - 69 %, for 16 - 62 %, for 15 - 58 %, for 14 - 56 %, for 13 - 39 %, for 12 - 31 % and for 11 or less, the probability of busting if you hit is nil.

In a two card count situation, the probability of being dealt a natural 21 is only 4.8 %. A value of 17 - 20 has a probability percentage of 30 %, and being dealt a value of 1-16 is 38.7 percent. The probability of being dealt a No Bust is 26.5 %.

In case of a dealer final hand, the probability of a value equal to a natural 21 is 4.82 %, and a final hand value of 21 (3 or more cards) is 7.36 percent. For a final hand of 20 the percentage is 17.58. For a final hand of 19, the probability percentage is 13.48% and for a value of 18, the percentage is 13.81%. For a final hand value of 17, the percentage is 14.58, while for a value of 17, the probability is 28.36.

To understand the dealer's probabilities of busting depending on the hand value, keep these figures in mind. For a dealer up card of 2, the dealer bust percentage is 35.30 %. For an up card of 3, the percentage of busting is 37.56 %. For a dealer up card of 4, the percentage of busting probability is 40.28 %. For an up card of 5, the percentage is 42.89 %. For an up card of 6, the probability of busting is 42.08 % while a dealer up card of 7 will have a probability of busting of around 25.99 %. An up card of 8 will have a busting probability of 23.86 % and an up card of 9 will have a busting percentage of 23.34 %. For J, Q, K, the percentage of busting is 21.43 % and for an ace, the chances are 11.65 percent.

Understanding Blackjack Probabilities will help you to increase your chances of winning at blackjack game.

Read more to master the blackjack game:
Blackjack Card Counting
Blackjack Strategy
Blackjack Terms
Blackjack Tips
Blackjack Bankroll Management
Blackjack Variations